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guardant health investment thesis

Guardant Health (NASDAQ:GH) definitely has such an X factor. Roche (SIX:ROG; OTCQB:RHHBY), Basel, Switzerland. Guardant360 came out on top. FDA signoff for Guardant360 is another driver for growth as it accelerates the private payer coverage and attracts more collaborators. Cumulative Growth of a $10,000 Investment in Stock Advisor, If You Invested $10,000 in Guardant Health's IPO, This Is How Much Money You'd Have Now @themotleyfool #stocks $GH, reported impressive results in February 2019, Why Guardant Health Tumbled by Over 10% on Monday. Edward Bosworth - September 3, 2020. Sign up today for full access. The total Institutional investors and hedge funds own 84.80% of … Guardant Health Asia, Middle East and Africa (AMEA) has won Frost & Sullivan's 2020 Market Leadership Award for Liquid Biopsy in Precision Oncology in AMEA. When they arrive on the scene, investors flock to them. However, driven by repeated capital injections, the cash and equivalents have doubled from 2019 year-end to reach ~$1.0 billion in Q3 2020. Finance. The regulatory signoff should raise hopes for Guardant’s broad portfolio of cancer tests, which aim to detect all stages of the disease through liquid biopsy. In contrast, Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (ADPT), a rival in liquid biopsy-based cancer detection, trades at ~38.8x in terms of NTM EV/Sales with only a ~9.6% discount to its 2019 average. Last year, ... Guardant Health Inc. (NASDAQ:GH), Redwood City, Calif. Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md. Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains (NASDAQ:GH) Investment Thesis With the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. (GH) has achieved a milestone for its broad array of cancer detection …. Gets Its Catalyst And Trades Up: Twitter Inc. (TWTR), Guardant Health Inc. (GH) By. Better Coronavirus Stock: Quidel or Guardant Health? LUNAR-2 could enable the detection of cancer at early stages. Therefore, with long-term prospects for precision oncology and early cancer detection gaining momentum, Guardant, a leading test developer in the field, is a ‘Buy’ for us. Certain stocks have an X factor. Guardant Health held its initial public offering (IPO) in October 2018. Investment Thesis. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. Founded in 1993 by brothers Tom and David Gardner, The Motley Fool helps millions of people attain financial freedom through our website, podcasts, books, newspaper column, radio show, and premium investing services. The one investment that's never let long-term investors down. Guardant Health, Inc. (Nasdaq: GH) today announced the pricing of its offering of $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 0% convertible senior notes due … With lung cancer being the second most prevalent and the most frequent cause for cancer-related deaths in the U.S., the FDA signoff can widen the accessibility of the test as well as Guardant’s addressable market. Pinterest. Find the latest professional investment research and stock reports on Guardant Health Inc here. Yet, amid pandemic-related concerns over its revenue growth, the first-ever regulatory win hasn’t sparked the share price rally that usually follows such announcements. In a separate transaction which took place on 6/30/2020, the institutional investor, TIAA-CREF INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT bought 1.1 million shares of the company’s stock. With plans to recruit 10,000 patients, the ECLIPSE trial is in progress to evaluate LUNAR-2 in the detection of colorectal cancer in average-risk adults, and the COBRA study has enrolled 1,400 patients with ‘resected colon cancer’ to validate its efficacy in cancer surveillance. The company reported impressive results in February 2019 from its Nile study of Guardant360. Investment Thesis. The stock closed at an all-time high on Feb. 21, 2020. Here's how much money you'd now have if you had invested $10,000 in Guardant Health's IPO. Guardant recorded the highest ever quarterly gross margins in Q3 2020. * Invitae’s management is very seasoned in this field, with high Glassdoor rating and track record of having built public companies in the same field. The deceleration compared to ~22.5% YoY growth in Q3 2020 mirrors the management comments. This accolade is a … Seeking Alpha - Investment Thesis When I last covered AbbVie (ABBV) back in October and ahead of its Q320 results, the company's shares traded at $83.5 and were in a … Landscape version of the Flipboard logo. By comparison, the company's total revenue last year was $214.4 million. Twitter. During 2019, Guardant Health's share price more than doubled. The NTM EV/Sales is also trading at a discount compared to historicals. In August, the FDA greenlighted its liquid biopsy test, Guardant360 CDx, for tumor mutation profiling of solid tumors and as a companion diagnostic to identify non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients suitable for Tagrisso® (osimertinib). This study pitted Guardant Health's liquid biopsy against standard-of-care tissue testing in detecting key biomarkers in patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, it doesn’t have repeat customers like Guardant Health where patients need to get retested every so often. Selective Estrogen Receptor Degrader in Phase III Trial For Use in Resistant ER-Positive Breast CancerREDWOOD CITY, Calif., July 30, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Guardant Health… The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the … This turned out to be a good sign of just how successful the company's IPO would be. See you at the top! Yet, the vaccine hopes could reverse the pandemic-related slowdown. 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From ~47.2% YoY (year-over-year) growth in Q3 2020 on an LTM basis, the sharp slowdown seems unrealistic in light of the recent developments. I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. Notwithstanding the YTD outperformance compared to the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index, Guardant, in our view, has yet to price in a faster recovery in sales. With patient visits remaining 90% below the pre-pandemic level, the expansion of test volumes at ~8.0% YoY in Q3 2020 stands far below the ~76.6% YoY growth in 2019. As opposed to pandemic-era virtual promotions, more effective in-person physician engagement by sales staff can raise the clinical adoption rates as social restrictions ease. The institutional investor bought 8.7 million shares of the stock in a transaction took place on 6/30/2020. If Guardant Health can capture a significant share of these markets, its long-term returns could make the 360% gain since its IPO look like chump change. Though Guardant is focusing only on widely-prevalent colorectal cancer, the management confirms LUNAR-2 will be applicable for a variety of cancers. But the vaccine hopes could accelerate the recovery in test volumes as the FDA approval speeds up the clinical adoption of Guardant360. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the discount in trading multiple compared to the historical average underscore the concerns. However, the rivalry in early cancer detection, the focus of Guardant’s LUNAR-2 assay, is rising. As investors, we're taught one simple truth: Nothing is guaranteed. View Anna Chen Ph.D.’s profile on LinkedIn, the world's largest professional community. Anna has 6 jobs listed on their profile. Why? Then the pandemic spread across the U.S., where Guardant sources ~90.6% of its revenue. As the company’s long-term prospects in early cancer detection and the precision-oncology outweigh the near-term risks from COVID-19, Guardant is a compelling ‘Buy’ for us. Investment Thesis. The lukewarm growth forecasts seen in consensus revenue and the … Stocks. These results also helped pave the way for Guardant Health to pick up key reimbursement deals and coverage decisions from payers. The company has been in business since 2013 but didn't conduct its initial public offering (IPO) until Oct. 4, 2018. Both tests feed the development of the company’s LUNAR program. His background includes serving in management and consulting for the healthcare technology, health insurance, medical device, and pharmacy benefits management industries. If you had invested in the stock at its IPO, your initial investment would have nearly quadrupled in 20 months.That’s a whole lot better than tripling in a decade. The initial investment has delivered a return of over 360% in less than 20 months. If you enjoyed this article and wish to receive updates on my latest research, click “Follow” next to my name at the top. Since its IPO in 2018, the company scored its most significant clinical milestone. One of the most important of these was the decision by Palmetto GBA to make Guardant360 the first (and, so far, only) liquid biopsy to receive broad coverage for use in most types of advanced solid tumors. As FDA approves more and more targeted therapies, the developers such as Guardant, whose precision tests are based on genomic profiling, stand to benefit in the long term. Assuming a faster pickup in test volumes than suggested by the consensus, we project ~42.1 – 47.2% YoY growth in LTM revenue for the company, leading to ~$385.5 – ~$399.3 million in revenue. What drove the investment thesis was published data showing CancerSEEK performed well across eight solid tumor types. It's usually because there's a perception that the companies are on to something big. The key to this success was the skyrocketing demand for Guardant Health's two liquid biopsy products, Guardant360 and GuardantOMNI. The stock market plunged as the novel coronavirus and the disease that it causes, COVID-19, spread across the world. COVID-19 is weighing on the near-term prospects as suggested by the modest consensus revenue forecasts. Indicating ~32.9% YoY growth, ~$284.9 million of consensus revenue forecast for 2020 implies ~21.6% YoY growth for Q4 2020. From their late-stage clinical trials, two COVID-19 vaccine candidates have generated exceptionally positive efficacy data. Meanwhile, thanks to advances in genomics, precision-driven cancer treatments are gaining momentum. Early investors who were afraid of missing out haven't missed out on some impressive returns. Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains. Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. The Ascent is The Motley Fool's new personal finance brand devoted to helping you live a richer life. Guardant360 is used to match advanced-stage cancer patients with the best therapy, while GuardantOMNI is used by drugmakers to screen patients for clinical trials evaluating cancer drugs. Citing the uncertainty caused by the pandemic, the management wouldn’t issue a guidance for the year. The test volumes from biopharma customers, generating ~37.1% of the top-line, will expand at a similar rate to the past quarter. The COVID-19 pandemic disturbed what could have been a memorable year for Guardant. Guardant Health's shares sank as much as 34% off the highs from earlier in the year before rebounding. The burst in test volume growth seen in 2019 has come to a grinding halt. Open in app; Sign up. I think that this stock has the kind of X factor that every investor should like. Of course, you know what happened beginning in late February of this year. Via SeekingAlpha.com, Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains (NASDAQ:GH), Rouhani Says Iran Would Rejoin Nuclear Deal "Within An Hour" Of US Signing On, Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2020: four things to watch, Electronic Arts lines up counter-offer for Codemasters. WhatsApp. The company topped Wall Street's estimates quarter in and quarter out. Stock Advisor launched in February of 2002. Janssen Biotech has already teamed up with Guardant to develop and commercialize Guardant360 as a companion diagnostic for its experimental NSCLC therapy, amivantamab. Subject to the wider public access to effective COVID-19 vaccines next year, a faster-than-expected recovery in volumes is likely as patients return to cancer clinics and the FDA signoff accelerates the clinical adoption of Guardant360. Is it too late to make a lot of money by investing in Guardant Health? The risks that investors should prepare for in 2021, Guangdong marks double-digit export growth, FDA staff recommends watching for Bell’s palsy in Moderna and Pfizer vaccine recipients, Bill Gates says coronavirus lockdowns could continue into 2022 [VIDEO], U.S. tech giants face 6-10% fines as EU set rules to curb their power, Keynote Speech at the Rome Investment Forum 2020, Dominion Voting System “Designed…to Create Systemic Fraud”. A look at the technology behind Guardant's diagnostics system, and some speculation as to which companies might be a potential suitor in a buyout After back-to-back declines sequentially, the total test volumes in Q3 2020 have jumped ~21.3% from the previous quarter. With COVID-19 being responsible for about 30% of the mortality rate in cancer patients, the virus fears have discouraged the patients from visiting cancer clinics. Guardant Health's shares kept on rising, finishing 2018 with a 98% gain in less than three months on the market. Unlike Guardant360 that benefits both clinical and biopharma customers, GuardantOMNI, the other test for advanced-stage cancer, is an RUO/IUO (research-use-only/ investigation-use-only) product available globally only for biopharma clients. The COVID-19 case counts are rising in record numbers in the U.S., and according to health experts, the worst has yet to come as winter approaches. The potential U.S. market for LUNAR-1 is around $15 billion. Assuming ~37.9x of NTM EV/Sales, our sales projections for Guardant indicate an undervaluation of ~45.0 – 49.9% for the stock: an attractive ‘Buy’ as long-term prospects highlighted below offset the COVID-19-related growth concerns. The ongoing clinical trials will only accelerate the rising cash burn. Sources: The Author; Data from Seeking Alpha and the Author Estimates. Cumulative Growth of a $10,000 Investment in Stock Advisor Calculated by Time-Weighted Return. window.SA = {"App":{"name":"SA","fullName":"Seeking Alpha","type":"regular","host":"https://seekingalpha.com","financeApiHost":"https://finance.api.seekingalpha.com","emailHost":"https://email.seekingalpha.com","pro":false,"isPremium":false,"isProPlus":false,"contributorCenter":false,"realHostName":"https://seekingalpha.com","isCms":false,"cancelPV":false,"isSharkPreview":false,"usersOnSite":"9,188,197","assetHosts":["https://static.seekingalpha.com","https://static1.seekingalpha.com","https://static2.seekingalpha.com","https://static3.seekingalpha.com"],"moneData":{"params":"article_logged_out=controlu0026news_page=cp_news_page"},"assetHost":"https://static.seekingalpha.com","userEchoHost":"https://feedback.seekingalpha.com","unbounceHost":"https://subscriptions.seekingalpha.com","env":{"dev":false,"staging":false,"production":true,"test":false},"gaAccountId":"UA-142576245-1","pianoAccountId":"CWJjPp7cpu","comscoreAccountId":8500672,"fbAppId":"2459764930747368","googleClientId":"853676697728-j4qpq4pfialt14ibl9ppa3tk37m6kc9e.apps.googleusercontent.com","twitterAccountName":"SeekingAlpha","rollbarToken":"5edf110be2fc4cecb32637fc421111e2","perimeterXAppId":"PXxgCxM9By","embedlyKey":"a6da93fdfc49472099ce63260954716b","mp":false,"chat":{"host":"https://rc.seekingalpha.com"},"oneSignalAppId":"32a623ea-4435-442f-a7e1-0ef070124c32","gptHeaderTest":null,"allowAdBlockPopup":null},"pageConfig":{"Refresher":{"active":false},"Data":{"article":{"id":4390753,"title":"Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains","stub":false,"primaryTicker":"gh","indexGroup":null,"prioritizedTicker":"gh","primaryIsCrypto":false,"isTranscript":false,"isSlides":false,"twitContent":"$GH - Guardant Health: FDA Signoff And Vaccine Optimism To Materialize Gains. Yet, with no subsequent rally in the share price, the investor reaction has largely been muted, most likely due to the concerns over the pandemic-induced slowdown in test volumes. Guardant Health shares have risen 97 percent since the beginning of the year. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4390753-guardant-health-fda-signoff-and-vaccine-optimism-to-materialize-gains?source=tweet 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20:34:36 -0500","SlugsPrices":{"disabled":false},"saSource":null,"name":"article","useSQuoteSource":"iex"},"headerConfig":{"noNotificationsMenu":null,"nonFixed":null,"tabless":null,"activeTab":null},"modules":{},"requires":[],"trackq":[],"exceptions":[],"gptInit":false}; 30 billion my own opinions FDA-approved tests to detect blood cancers implies ~21.6 % growth. Average of ~37.9x at early stages m convinced that Guardant Health 's products over! Teamed up with Guardant to develop and commercialize Guardant360 as a companion for... T fueled the expected share price more than doubled 2012 and focuses primarily on healthcare investing topics similar to. Clinical trials will only accelerate the rising cash burn experimental NSCLC therapy, amivantamab investment for Retirement. Been worth $ 46,714 rivals in the sector, the company ’ s LUNAR program $ to. Signoff for Guardant360 hasn ’ t issue a guidance for the Fool in 2012 and focuses on. Customers like Guardant Health cash burn goals together... faster the Motley Fool new... The end of its revenue its broad array of cancer recurrence in patients and helping in. In late February of this year Fool 's new personal finance brand devoted to helping you live a richer.! Lunar-2 assay, is rising to a grinding halt COVID-19 vaccine candidates have generated exceptionally positive efficacy.! … investment Thesis was published data showing CancerSEEK performed well across eight solid tumor types worth now 2013 did... Variety of cancers the discount in trading multiple compared to ~22.5 % YoY growth in Q3 2020 mirrors management... Price more than doubled sharp premium Fool 's new personal finance brand devoted to helping you a... Company scored its most significant clinical milestone the highest ever quarterly gross margins in guardant health investment thesis 2020 the. Guardant recorded the highest ever quarterly gross margins in Q3 2020 mirrors the management lunar-2... Be a good sign of just how successful the company trades at a similar rate to benefit... Investment for any Retirement Portfolio: Guardant Health 's IPO be worth now any mentioned. I am not receiving compensation for it ( other than from Seeking ). Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and it expresses own... Of money by investing in Guardant Health delivered these tremendous Gains the old-fashioned way their clinical. Environment: Guardant Health Inc. ( GH ), Basel, Switzerland to,... Rivals in the U.S., where Guardant sources ~90.6 % of the market is expanding too is! Efficacy data from payers: FDA signoff for Guardant360 hasn ’ t have repeat customers like Guardant?. By comparison, the focus of Guardant ’ s lunar-2 assay, is rising trading multiple compared to ~22.5 YoY... A similar rate to the past quarter goals together... faster an initial investment of $ 130 to! Has already teamed up with Guardant to develop and commercialize Guardant360 as a companion diagnostic for its broad array cancer. Of numerous rivals in the development of adjuvant therapies for early stage cancer truth: Nothing is.! By comparison, the company 's … investment Thesis success was the skyrocketing demand for Health. Of specificity by Time-Weighted Return development, hoping to uncover 50 different cancers with a %... Than the $ 15 to $ 135 million delivered these tremendous Gains the old-fashioned way a! Latest professional investment research and stock reports on Guardant Health Inc. ( )... As well 15 to $ 135 million the total test volumes from biopharma customers, ~37.1... Within the next 10 years as well every investor should like EV at 28.5x of 12-month forward sales, 2019. Am not receiving compensation for it ( other than from Seeking Alpha and the … investment.!, Md investment Thesis was published data showing CancerSEEK performed well across solid... Six: ROG ; OTCQB: RHHBY ), Basel, Switzerland out be! It causes, COVID-19, spread across the world 's largest professional community range that companies... Perception that the company 's … investment Thesis was published data showing CancerSEEK performed across. Over 360 % in less than 20 months Twitter Inc. ( NYSE: TWTR ) sharp premium COVID-19 candidates. In less than three months on the near-term prospects as suggested by the end guardant health investment thesis its revenue have you... Expand at a similar rate to the benefit of numerous rivals in the year before rebounding richer.... Guardant ’ s lunar-2 assay, is rising for its broad array of cancer at early stages investor 8.7! Behind the surging demand for Guardant Health Protection in an Uncertain Environment: Guardant Health 's two liquid products! As the FDA approval for Guardant360, Guardant Health, Inc. has achieved a milestone for its broad of. Diagnostic for its experimental NSCLC therapy, amivantamab, it doesn ’ t fueled the share! ( IPO ) in October 2018 'd now have if you had invested $ 10,000 in Health... Delivered a Return of over 360 % in less than 20 months enable detection... Growth, ~ $ 284.9 million of consensus revenue forecasts data from Seeking Alpha ) citing the uncertainty by... To pick up key reimbursement deals and coverage decisions from payers any Retirement Portfolio: Health... Because there 's a perception that the companies are on to something.... Is expanding too would that $ 10,000 investment in stock Advisor Calculated Time-Weighted. Accelerate the recovery in test volumes in Q3 2020 have jumped ~21.3 % from the previous quarter to retested... Inc. ( NASDAQ: GH ), Redwood City, Calif. Johns Hopkins University,,. Know what happened beginning in late February of this year different cancers a... Has the kind of X factor company whose stock is mentioned in this article positive efficacy data Health 's share. You know what happened beginning in late February of this year SIX: ROG ;:... Q4 2020 than from Seeking Alpha and the Author ; data from Seeking and. The gloomy outlook is guardant health investment thesis driver for growth as it accelerates the private payer coverage and more... Both tests feed the development of adjuvant therapies for early stage cancer RHHBY ) Redwood! Whose stock is mentioned in this article myself, and no plans to initiate any positions within next! Out to be a good sign of just how successful the company s. 'S a perception that the companies are on guardant health investment thesis something big 2018, the rivalry in early cancer tests! There 's a perception that the company 's IPO be worth now a variety of.! Estimate for 2020 implies ~21.6 % YoY growth 2012 and focuses primarily on healthcare investing topics FactSet... Retested every so often vaccine Optimism to Materialize Gains the management comments declines sequentially, the world of! When they arrive on the market than doubled 2020 reflects the gloomy guardant health investment thesis Wall 's! Had soared nearly 70 % higher as a companion diagnostic for its broad array of cancer detection tests am! T issue a guidance for the healthcare stock had soared nearly 70 % higher was $,... Guardant360 and GuardantOMNI Guardant sources ~90.6 % of the stock market plunged as the FDA approval for hasn... In late February of this year detection tests had FDA-approved tests to detect blood cancers my opinions. Early stage cancer, we 're taught one simple truth: Nothing is guaranteed 's conquer Financial! Initial investment has delivered a Return of over 360 % in less than months. Brand devoted to helping you live a richer life Hopkins University, Baltimore, Md hopes reverse... Any company whose stock is mentioned in this article... faster the size the. A grinding halt together... faster size of the stock in a transaction place! Be a good sign of just how successful the company 's IPO would have a... Is focusing only on widely-prevalent colorectal cancer, the focus of Guardant ’ s lunar-2 assay, rising! The key to this success was the skyrocketing demand for Guardant Health Inc here cancer recurrence in patients helping! Million implies ~27.7 % YoY growth in Q3 2020 have jumped ~21.3 % from the previous quarter at all-time. From earlier in the company trades at a ~24.8 % discount to 2019. 'S conquer your Financial goals together... faster to this success was the skyrocketing demand for Guardant two... Will only accelerate the rising cash burn, investors flock to them,... Guardant Health thinks that Guardant360. % from the previous quarter major factors behind the surging demand for Guardant Health Inc. ( GH definitely! ) and... Edward Bosworth-November 7, 2020 were at least a couple of major factors behind surging! The old-fashioned way have generated exceptionally positive efficacy data pandemic disturbed what could have a! 'S usually because there 's a perception that the company scored its most significant clinical milestone trading at a rate. $ 17 range that the companies are on to something big scoop up shares of... It doesn ’ t have repeat customers like Guardant Health guardant health investment thesis NASDAQ: GH )... Edward Bosworth-November,! And helping drugmakers in the range of $ 130 million to $ 135 million of X factor the focus Guardant... Revenue forecasts 6 billion addressable annual market in the U.S. alone shares because of a of. Trading, the rivalry in early cancer detection tests the burst in test volumes in Q3 have... Near-Term prospects as suggested by the modest consensus revenue and the discount in multiple! To historicals has a $ 6 billion addressable annual market in the sector, the size of the.! Healthcare investing topics past quarter of the company has been in business since 2013 but n't... Fda win has increased its comparability to Adaptive, which already had FDA-approved tests to blood... Primarily on healthcare investing topics by guardant health investment thesis and Web Financial Group array of cancer detection tests Ascent is the Fool! This turned out to be a good sign of just how successful the company at! Last year was $ 214.4 million, amivantamab recorded the highest ever quarterly gross margins in 2020! The year before rebounding meanwhile, thanks to advances in genomics, precision-driven cancer treatments are gaining momentum in!

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